Who Is Going to Win the 2026 World Cup? The Favorites, the Upsets, and the Team Nobody Saw Coming

World Cup 2026 Quarterfinals Who Will Win FIFA 2026

Who Is Going to Win the 2026 World Cup? The Favorites, the Upsets, and the Team Nobody Saw Coming 🏆⚽🔥

📅 July 7, 2026 · ☕ 12 min read · ✍️ World Cup 2026 · Quarterfinals · Tournament Predictions

The Quarterfinals Are Set.
Four Teams Will Lift the Trophy.
Here Is Who It Is Going to Be.

Germany is gone. Brazil is gone. Portugal is gone. The Netherlands is gone. France leads, Spain hasn't conceded a goal, Argentina has Messi at 39 scoring for fun, and Norway just knocked out Brazil. Let's settle this. 🏆⚽

Teams remaining

July 19

Final at MetLife

+170

France odds to win

Goals Spain conceded

Let's just acknowledge what has happened at this World Cup. Germany — who scored seven goals in their opener — went out on penalties to Paraguay. The Netherlands went out on PKs to Morocco. And Brazil lost to Norway in the Round of 16 when Erling Haaland scored twice. This World Cup is completely, gloriously unpredictable. And we are absolutely living for it. 🏆⚽🔥

Eight teams are left. The quarterfinals start Thursday. Here is the full breakdown — the odds, the form, the key players, the path to the Final, and who we actually think is winning this whole thing.

Current Odds — Who the World Thinks Will Win

Team

Best odds

Win probability

France

+170 (7/4)

~37%

Argentina

+425 (9/2)

~19%

Spain

+550 (7/2)

~16%

England

+520 (11/2)

~14%

Norway

+1700 (17/1)

~5%

Belgium

+5000 (50/1)

~3%

Morocco

Long odds

~3%

The 5 Teams Who Can Actually Win This Thing

+170

France · Tournament Favorite

Les Bleus — The Team to Beat

France is playing the most dominant football in the tournament. They have not conceded a goal in the knockout stage — beating Sweden 3-0 then Paraguay 1-0 with a Mbappé penalty. Kylian Mbappé has nine goal involvements at this tournament alone and 19 World Cup goals total. He is playing the football of his life. The early exits of Germany and the Netherlands have cleared France's side of the bracket dramatically. All that stands between them and the semis right now is Morocco — which is spicy — but France are massive favourites.

9Mbappe goal involvements

0Goals conceded in knockouts

9ptsPerfect group stage

Path to the Final

QF July 9 — vs Morocco (heavy favorites)

SF July 14-15 — vs Norway or England winner

Final July 19 — MetLife Stadium

The Mbappe factor: He is now at 19 World Cup goals and counting. If France make the Final he will almost certainly become the all-time World Cup scorer. The best player in the world at his absolute peak right now.

+425

Argentina · Reigning Champions

La Albiceleste — Messi's Last Dance

Lionel Messi is 39 years old and has scored seven goals at this tournament. Seven. He has 20 World Cup goals total making him the outright all-time record holder. He is playing with joy and freedom that looks like a man who knows this is his last World Cup and absolutely refuses to go home early. Argentina are the defending champions, have won every match with authority, and have the greatest player who ever lived operating at a level that defies his age. The only team that feels like they can genuinely beat France.

7Messi goals this tournament

20Messi all-time WC goals (record!)

39Messi's age · Defying belief

Path to the Final

R16 July 7 — vs Egypt today (heavy favorites)

QF July 11 — vs Switzerland or Colombia winner

SF July 14-15 — potential rematch vs France or Spain

The GOAT watch: If Messi wins this he would have back-to-back World Cup titles at 39 — the greatest individual football story ever told. The whole world that isn't French or Spanish is quietly rooting for it. ⭐

+550

Spain · Zero Goals Conceded

La Roja — The Quietly Terrifying One

Spain beat Portugal 1-0 with a Mikel Merino goal in the 90th minute on Monday. They have still not conceded a single goal in the entire tournament. They are on an unbeaten run of 35 games — tying the longest in their history. Their possession-based style with Pedri, Gavi, and Rodri in midfield is suffocating every opponent. Nobody has figured out how to score against them. If they keep that clean sheet run going into the Final they are going to be extremely, extremely difficult to beat.

0Goals conceded all tournament

35Unbeaten run (games)

90+1Merino winner vs Portugal

Path to the Final

QF July 11 — vs Belgium (who just beat USA 4-1)

SF July 14-15 — potentially vs Argentina or France

Final July 19 — First Final since 2010 if they get there

The stat that matters: Zero goals conceded. Not one. At a World Cup with 48 teams and 104 matches. La Roja are playing defensive football that is a work of art. The dangerous kind of team. The kind you don't see coming until they're lifting the trophy.

+520

England · Conquered the Azteca

The Three Lions — Bellingham's Moment

England did something almost no team in history has done — they won at the Estadio Azteca. With ten men. Jude Bellingham scored twice in the first half and Harry Kane added a penalty as England beat Mexico 3-2 in an absolute thriller. Bellingham is playing the tournament of his life. England improved dramatically in the odds after that win jumping to third favorites. Their challenge now is Norway and Erling Haaland in the quarterfinals — the test of whether England's backline can handle the best striker in the world right now.

2Bellingham goals vs Mexico

10 menRed card · Still won!

HistoricWon at the Azteca

Path to the Final

QF July 10 — vs Norway (Haaland is THE threat)

SF July 14-15 — vs France if they get there

Final July 19 — England's first Final since 1966!

Why England could do it: Bellingham at 22 is operating beyond his years. Kane is scoring. The defense has genuine character. And they just proved they can win ugly. If they stop Haaland on Thursday then watch out for the Three Lions. It's coming home? Maybe. Maybe. 🦁

The Dark Horses You Cannot Ignore

Norway — 17/1 and nobody is laughing anymore

Norway just knocked out Brazil. Erling Haaland scored twice against Neymar's team in the Round of 16 and sent Norway into the quarterfinals for the first time in their history. The odds went from 45/1 to 17/1 overnight. They face England next — Haaland vs Bellingham is one of the most exciting matchups left in the tournament. If Norway beat England they are in the semis. At that point this becomes one of the great World Cup stories ever told. Do not rule it out for a single second. ⚡

Morocco — The team that just eliminated the Netherlands on penalties

Morocco knocked out the Netherlands on penalties in the Round of 32 — their second consecutive deep World Cup run after reaching the semis in Qatar 2022. Now they face France in the quarterfinals. The Atlas Lions are organised, passionate, defensively brilliant, and have shown in two consecutive World Cups that they do not care who they are playing. France are heavy favourites but Morocco beat heavy favourites before. Never sleep on the Atlas Lions. 🦁

Belgium — Who just beat the USA 4-1 and nobody expected that either

Belgium dominated the United States 4-1 to reach the quarterfinals where they face Spain. Nobody gives them a chance against La Roja who haven't conceded all tournament. But Belgium have Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and the experience of four World Cup semi-finals across 1986, 2014, 2018, and now chasing 2026. If De Bruyne has one of those days anything is possible. 🇧🇪

The big story nobody expected: Brazil are out. Germany are out. The Netherlands are out. Portugal are out. The USA are out. This is the most wide-open World Cup since 1950. Four of the pre-tournament top six favourites have been eliminated — and three of the final eight teams (Norway, Morocco, Belgium) were not expected to be here at all.

Our Prediction — Who Is Winning This Thing

France are the best team at this tournament by a clear margin and Mbappe is the best player. Spain haven't conceded a goal and their defensive structure is terrifying. Argentina have Messi performing miracles at 39. And England just beat Mexico at the Azteca with ten men.

The Final we are calling? France vs Argentina. A rematch of Qatar 2022 — one of the greatest World Cup Finals in history. This time at MetLife Stadium in New York. July 19. 82,500 fans. The whole world watching. And this time? France are winning it. Mbappe finishes what he started in 2022. This is his World Cup and his moment. 🇫🇷🏆

"France vs Argentina. New York. July 19. The rematch the world has been waiting for. And this time? Les Bleus finish the job."

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Disclaimer: Odds quoted are for entertainment and informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly. Odds sourced from FanDuel, ESPN, bet365, and Covers.com as of July 7, 2026 and subject to change. This post is not affiliated with any sportsbook. The World Cup Trip Planner (worldcuptripplan.base44.app) is a free tool — not a paid placement. Match results accurate as of July 7, 2026.

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